Impact of the war in Ukraine on African economies

Since February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine War (RUW) has caused trade disruptions and artificial supply shortages on world markets, including for energy, fertiliser and food products. Many countries in the Global South are now suffering the economic consequences of these disruptions. Because both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of food, particularly grains, to African countries, the war has affected the food supply to the continent.

To analyse these impacts and identify and design suitable response and mitigation measures, PEP is partnering with the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) and Economic Research Forum (ERF) for a collaborative research program funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC).

PEP’s contribution is coordinated by the Macro-Micro Development Policy Modelling research group. Under two research phases, the PEP team is using computable general equilibrium and micro-simulation modelling techniques to simulate the various shocks of the RUW on African economies and the mitigation effects of a variety of policy options.

Woman sells corn in a market Ghana — Photo: Susan Quinn/USAID

Phase I (2022-23)

Objective: Quantify the dislocation effects of the war on African countries using a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.
This phase looked particularly at food security and compounding development challenges.

Phase II (2023-24)

Objective: Provide a gender-sensitive analysis of the economic impacts of the conflict and of counteracting macroeconomic policies in Egypt and Kenya.
This phase will look particularly at how the shocks affect women in the labor market, as household heads, their poverty, and their nutrition, as well as the effects on gender inequality.