Championing co-produced evidence for progressive tax policy in Africa

On 8 October 2025, PEP’s Executive Director, Prof. Jane Mariara, joined a panel discussion on “Harnessing Data for Taxation: Enhancing Macro-Fiscal Forecasting and Management in Africa” at the Africa Think Tanks Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

The session brought together policy research leaders to explore how better data can strengthen fiscal sustainability across the continent. Prof. Mariara shared insights from PEP’s research and practice, highlighting how evidence-informed policymaking (EIPM) can help governments design fairer, more efficient tax systems.

She noted that Africa’s average tax-to-GDP ratio remains around 16%, far below the global average of 34%, and the vast majority (around 85%) of jobs are in the informal sector. Improving the use of reliable data, she said, is key to mobilising revenue, improving compliance, and ensuring that taxation is equitable to support inclusive growth.

Drawing on PEP’s experience, Prof. Mariara highlighted how micro–macro approaches—using models that take into account household, firm, and administrative data in addition to national statistics—are useful for assessing the impacts of tax policies on revenue and welfare. These tools help policymakers forecast outcomes and design more equitable fiscal reforms.

She also emphasized PEP’s co-production model, which brings researchers and policymakers together from the start of each project. “When evidence is co-produced and ownership is shared, it is more likely to inform real policy change,” she said.

Prof. Mariara added that one of the key challenges is sensitizing policymakers to the value of data, modelling, and evidence. PEP continues to expand their efforts in this area through initiatives like the Evidence-Informed Policymaking (EIPM) program. She also highlighted how PEP country teams already ensure that recommendations are included in fiscal frameworks by immediately integrating research into Ministry of Finance operations.

“Without strong digital and integrated data systems, Africa runs the risk of failing at tax reform. Integrated systems will lead to less reliance on funding from outside the continent, and increased mobilisation of domestic resources,” said Prof. Mariara. She concluded: “Harnessing data is a governance imperative for Africa’s sustainable and inclusive development.”

The Africa Think Tanks Summit is the largest gathering of think tanks and research organisations on the continent. It also brings together representatives from major international organisations, donor agencies, African and international universities, and government agencies.

The 2025 edition focused on the theme “From Taxation to Action: Bridging Policy and Implementation in Public Financial Management in Africa”. Executive directors of leading African think tanks, policymakers, researchers, and government officials attended for knowledge sharing and policy dialogue on an area pivotal to fiscal sovereignty, sustainable development, and accountable governance. The African Capacity Building Foundation convened the event under the African Think Tank Platform Project.