Dutch disease, informality, and employment intensity in Colombia

This study investigates the impact of a boom in the Colombian oil and mining sectors on employment type and intensity, as well as the potential effects of Dutch Disease. Using CGE modelling, the team shows that a sustained oil export boom would lead to Dutch Disease effects, but also to a shift in employment from informal (not paying taxes) to formal labour. The researchers also test the effectiveness of the government’s policy responses (to counteract the Dutch Disease effects), and outline several recommendations for policy that will provide a workforce ready to meet the future needs of the Colombian economy. Find out more about the research methods, findings, and policy recommendations in the following PEP publications: