Climate change
Local Evidence for Global Resilience
Climate change is a defining challenge for global stability, with direct consequences for food security, economic growth, and livelihoods across the Global South. In regions where rainfed agriculture accounts for nearly 97% of cropland, even small shifts in weather patterns can have far-reaching effects on poverty, human capital, and long-term development.
PEP’s research shows that sustainable development cannot be imported: effective climate policy must be grounded in the social, economic, and institutional contexts where impacts are felt most acutely. By supporting local researchers to lead policy-relevant analysis, PEP helps ensure that climate responses are both inclusive and durable.
What PEP Research Tells Us About Climate Change
Climate impacts are gender-biased
Droughts and floods disproportionately affect female farmers, who often face constraints in access to land, credit, and recovery mechanisms. PEP research shows that when both women and men adopt climate-smart technologies, long-standing productivity gaps can be virtually eliminated.
Climate information strengthens resilience
Timely, location-specific climate information is a powerful adaptation tool. Evidence demonstrates that smallholder farmers who receive village-level rainfall forecasts via SMS, supported by phone-based advisory services, reduce input waste and significantly improve land productivity and household profits.
Extreme weather undermines human capital
Climate shocks frequently disrupt education pathways. PEP-supported studies show that extreme weather events can accelerate transitions from school to work, particularly among adolescents, as households rely on child labour to cope with income losses.
Green energy transitions support long-term growth
Macroeconomic modelling indicates that shifting national power systems from coal to renewable energy sources, such as solar, can increase long-term GDP by more than 11 percent while sharply reducing carbon emissions.
From Evidence to Policy Action
PEP’s research provides a clear pathway for policymakers to move beyond short-term crisis response toward strategic climate adaptation and mitigation.
Findings consistently show that gender-neutral policies are insufficient. Instead, governments must design gender-responsive interventions that address structural barriers, including women’s land rights and access to agricultural extension services. At the same time, long-term resilience is best supported through investment in climate-relevant infrastructure—such as irrigation systems and rural roads—which reduces poverty more effectively than temporary subsidies.
At the macroeconomic level, PEP’s work informs how Multilateral Development Banks can adapt lending frameworks to deliver the concessional financing required for green energy transitions. Such reforms are essential to protect regional economies, manage labour transitions, and support sustainable job creation.
Climate Evidence in Action
- Benin
Randomised control trials showed that farmers receiving mobile-based weather forecasts adjusted production strategies, leading to higher cultivated land area and increased incomes.
- Madagascar and Lesotho
Research on cyclones and droughts revealed significant impacts on youth, with girls more likely to be withdrawn from school to take on domestic responsibilities during climate shocks.
- Tanzania
While traditional farming practices showed a 24 percent gender productivity gap, the adoption of Climate-Smart Agriculture enabled women to achieve yields equal to those of men.
- South Africa and Pakistan
Modelling “Just Energy Transition” pathways highlighted the scale of investment required—exceeding USD 100 billion in South Africa alone—to shift to renewable energy while supporting workers in coal-dependent regions.
Climate Change initiatives
- Climate change in Africa: Impact and responses for women and girls
- MDB financing for green energy transitions in the Global South
- Leveraging renewable energy MSMEs for sustainable agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia
PEP also contributed to
Explore the full list of PEP projects, publications and researchers relevant to the theme of Climate Change below.
Projects
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Researchers
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Working Papers
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Policy Briefs
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