The Modelling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA) program assists developing country researchers in constructing models of their national economy to simulate the impact of macroeconomic shocks/policies on various dimensions of poverty and welfare.
To do so, it applies a combination of macro-micro modelling and simulation techniques including, for the macroeconomic level approach, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. CGE models account for the structural aspects of a country’s economy, i.e. the interactions among sectors and institutions, and their links with the global economy.
In recent years, however, MPIA leaders came to find that there was a need for reference models that were more elaborate and closer to real-life conditions than the ones that had been used so far. Moreover, policymakers face new challenges that call for impact assessments that look both forward in time and beyond national boundaries, to the global economy. And so lead researchers of the MPIA program (Bernard Decaluwe, Andre Lemelin, Helene Maisonnave, Veronique Robichaud) have devoted time and energy to creating a series of new standard CGE models that can respond to these needs.
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The first of these models, PEP 1-1, designed for country-level studies, was developed as an operational tool for researchers to easily adapt a relatively standard model to their national economy. Building on this basic model, PEP 1-t was created to include evolution in time. Technically speaking, PEP 1-t is a «recursive dynamic» version of PEP 1-1 (which is a static or single-period model): it extends the analysis to multiple periods, linking each one to the past through variables inherited from the previous period.
Since the beginning of 2011, no less than 3 new PEP standard CGE models have been put online. PEP-w-1 is a single-period WORLD model and PEP-w-t is its recursive dynamic version. These new models are based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) world-level data base. The latest innovation of the PEP-MPIA team is PEP-w-t-fin, which is, to our knowledge, the only recursive dynamic world model that includes international financial assets.
All of these models are truly «open source»: free public access is available via the links below. Each model is fully documented and all the relevant programs are freely accessible. Better still, with the kind permission of GTAP, a 14-region, 4-commodity, aggregated database is also made available to calibrate the new world models.
PEP is proud to offer the international modelling community, models that are not only fully operational for applied studies, but also perfectly suitable for training. Indeed, the MPIA team has made painstaking efforts to produce documentation that is complete, including references to theoretical underpinnings and detailed mathematical developments that link model equations and calibration procedures with the theory.
For detailed information on each model and access to related tools and files, follow the links below: