Three PEP researchers and one PEP Research Fellow presented papers at the 23rd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis. The conference, held online, brought together almost 1000 researchers, academics and policymakers from about 90 countries for discussions on the theme of “Global Economic Analysis Beyond 2020.”
The three researchers who presented were from PEP teams who have conducted macro-micro development policy modeling projects under the two PAGE initiatives. They presented their findings and policy messages during parallel sessions.
Saadatou Alkassoum Sangare, from Niger, was one of three presenters for a session looking at Labor Market Issues. She presented her team’s project on “Mining and petroleum boom and public spending policies in Niger: a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis”. She showed how reinvestment in road infrastructure, given the initial state of infrastructure in Niger, could bring positive spillover effects to other sectors of the economy and benefits to the economy in the long run.
During the session on Russian and Mongolian Economies, two of the presentations discussed findings from the PEP-PAGE II Institutionalisation Project. Oyunzul Tserendorj presented her team’s findings on the “Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on the Mongolian Economy”. She explained how Mongolia’s economy, and thus the effects of fiscal consolidation, are closely tied to international commodity prices. Nyambaatar Batbayar then looked at “Assessing threats to Mongolia’s economic recovery”. He discussed how, if there is expansionary fiscal policy, termination of the Oyu Tolgoi mine development or a negative shock to the coal sector, Mongolia’s fragile economic recovery would be put in jeopardy.
PEP Research Fellow and scientific mentor, Christian Arnault Emini presented his conclusions on the “Impacts of the 2014-16 drop in oil prices on child poverty in Chad and options for a policy response: Analysis using a recursive dynamic CGE model with fully integrated microsimulations” as part of the session on Poverty Analysis in Africa. He showed that the economic crisis caused by the drop in oil price has significantly worsened child poverty in Chad. He explained that social safety net programs need to be expanded nationwide to all poor households proportionally to the number of children they shelter.
These studies used PEP computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The researchers valued the feedback from those attending their presentations. The comments they received underlined the interest in their work.
The 23rd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis was hosted by the Center for Global Trade Analysis, which is housed in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, USA. The conference, which was initially scheduled to be held in Tokyo, Japan, was co-organized by the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo.