Assessing the impact of a cash transfer program for the elderly - Ekiti State, Nigeria
This analysis shows that the non-contributory cash transfer scheme in Ekiti State, Nigeria, improved the well-being of the elderly beneficiaries and their households. Find out more below, or through the PEP Working Paper 2016-21 and Policy Brief 171.
This team’s outstanding policy engagement from the earliest stages of the project – winning them third prize at the 2014 PEP Best Practice Awards – has led to a new Nigerian social security program being implemented, based on their recommendations. Find out more below or in the PEP Impact Brief.
Context, issues and objectives
Nigeria is the most populated country in Africa (173.6 million in 2013) and one in four people in sub-Saharan Africa is Nigerian. Since the end of the Nigerian civil war in 1970, the country’s population has tripled. Now, declining fertility and longer life expectancy mean that Nigeria has a significant – and growing – aging population, expected to reach 11 million individuals by 2025.
The country’s aging population presents a crucial challenge for the government in providing decent living conditions and improving well-being. However, with the majority of the elderly having worked in the informal sector all their productive lives, they have no access to employment-related pensions or other social benefits.
Recognizing the role of the informal sector in their societies, a number of developing world countries have implemented non-contributory old age pension schemes to support elderly members of the population, with the most recent regional pilot interventions being implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about the impact of such schemes, particularly in areas with high poverty levels and multiple demands on increasingly strained governmental budgets.
An unconditional, non-contributory pension scheme was implemented for citizens of Ekiti State, Nigeria, aged 65 and over and not receiving any other pensions. It is the first of its kind not only in Nigeria but also in West Africa. Implemented by the state government in 2011, the scheme is expected to improve the living conditions of the beneficiaries with the State Governor at the time, Dr. Kayode Fayemi saying: “Through the provision of regular income payments, the well-being of elderly citizens will improve and poverty will be reduced.”
A team of local PEP researchers was awarded PEP funding and support to evaluate the impact of the cash transfer scheme in terms of beneficiary well-being using the experimental randomized controlled trial method, in collaboration with the Ekiti State Ministry of Labor, Productivity and Human Development. The team set out to provide results that would inform state and federal-level policy on how to support the elderly population in Nigeria.
Click on the video above right for a presentation of the project by the team leader, Dr. Damilola Olajide.
- What is the impact of the Ekiti State cash transfer scheme on the living conditions of the beneficiaries (elderly), particularly on their expenditure patterns (e.g. food and alcohol consumption) and health?
- How does the size of the impact on the beneficiaries (if any) differ by gender and location?
- Are there any unintended effects/consequences associated with the scheme?
The team presented the results from the analysis of the first follow up survey during the 2016 PEP Annual Conference in Manila, Philippines. Find out more in the publications below.
Project links and documents
|Find out more about this project - its analytical approach and outcomes - through the following links/documents:||
|PEP project PIERI-12506||Working paper (PDF)|
|Project proposal (Word doc)||Policy brief (PDF)
|Final report (PDF)||Impact brief (PDF)
3rd prize winner of the 2014 PEP Best Practice Awards
Policy engagement, consultation and dissemination
The evaluation project was undertaken in collaboration with the Ekiti State Ministry of Labor, Productivity and Human Development, the government body in charge of implementing the cash transfer program, and thus first-hand users of the results.
The team's consultation activities have involved key stakeholders in institutions at regional, national and international levels:
- Ekiti State government: Ministry of Labor, Productivity and Human Development, Directorate of Social Development (Ekiti State Government Commission), Office of the State Governor, House of Assembly, as well as all political parties in Ekiti State
- National (federal) government: National Planning Commission and Committee on Labor, Employment, and Productivity (Federal House of Representatives)
- International: HelpAge International Pension Watch
Following the consultations held with the Ministry in the fall of 2012 while designing the research proposal, the Head of the Directorate of Social Development (the partner implementation agency in charge of field activities associated with the cash transfer scheme) Florence Adebayo, joined the research team to ensure the coordination of the evaluation with those implementing the program as well as the incorporation of the research team’s recommendations into policy decisions and practices.
The findings and recommendations of the project will therefore be used to directly assist in improving the cash transfer scheme by informing decisions related to the expansion and implementation of the program, while simultaneously helping to build capacity for impact evaluation within the government department. The Directorate of Social Development is also in charge of local NGOs/CSOs operating in the State, representing the other potential stakeholders/users of the project's outcomes. The Ekiti State Governor even used this project as a promotional tool during his last election campaign in 2014.
At the state level in July 2016, the Director of the Social Security Scheme for Ekiti State commended the research team on their study and noted that there are lessons to be learned from the cash transfer scheme.
At the national level, the research team consulted with Deputy Director of the Department of Social Development, at the National Planning Commission, who confirmed the project’s timeliness with their own initiatives in terms of social protection policy, and their intention to participate in the forthcoming stakeholders’ policy workshops. As of April 2016, the Federal Government is using the evaluation's preliminary findings (i.e. results from the first follow-up survey) as part of an ongoing discussion regarding the introduction of a national non-contributory pension scheme in Nigeria. Lessons learned from this experience and its evaluation are also expected to inform (and potentially generate financial/political support for) other similar program initiatives in other countries in the region.
In June 2016, a senior official at the (federal) Ministry of Budget and Planning stated that the team’s findings would inform the government as they develop the National Priority Agenda for the Vulnerable, for which a key element is a national social security scheme supporting the elderly population.
At the international level, in October 2013 the team leader was invited to attend a conference on "100 years of social pensions, the challenge of global poverty and experiences of the social protection system", organized jointly by the Church of Sweden and HelpAge International, in Stockholm. The HelpAge website blog posts generated many comments from experts and key stakeholders around the world, and the project leader has been contacted directly by international experts on pension issues who wish to stay up to date with the findings and outcomes of the team’s experiment.
In April 2015, Dr. Olajide was invited (as the sole African researcher) by Harvard University School of Public Health to present and discuss the work and preliminary findings of this experimental evaluation at the World Demographic & Ageing Forum (WDA Forum) in Boston. A paper based on these preliminary findings (i.e. results from the first follow-up survey) has also been submitted for publication as an article in the Journal of Economics of Ageing and is currently under revision for resubmission as requested by the journal.
On October 21, 2016, the team held a national policy conference in Lagos, where they presented their research findings and proposed a national social security scheme to key state and federal-level stakeholders including representatives of the federal Ministry of Labour and Employment, and the Ekiti State Ministry of Labour, Productivity and Human Development. During the event, several government officials stated that the team’s findings will help shape their thinking and decisions regarding microcredit programs. The representative for the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment promised to convey the policy message supporting the proposed national social security program to the Minister of Labour and Employment and other members of the federal government.
Several weeks after the conference, the federal government announced a plan to provide social security to 50% of vulnerable population groups, starting with unemployed youth. A new scheme was implemented as the Federal Government started a first round of monthly allocation (N5000) payments in January 2017. The scheme was based on the Ekiti State model and the research team was actively consulted regarding its implementation and are looking at undertaking a possible evaluation of the intervention. Find out more in the PEP Impact Brief.
The project described above is one of the several projects selected for support under the PEP research and capacity building initiative for Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment (PAGE) in developing countries. The PAGE program is co-funded by UK's Department for International Development (DFID) and Canada's International Development Research Center (IDRC).
This particular project was selected in June 2013, following the first of three competitive calls for proposals of the PAGE initiative. A total of 65 projects have been supported under the three PAGE funding rounds. Find out more