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Section de la page ''Modelling the impacts of macroeconomic policies and shocks''

Modeling the Impact of Macroeconomic Policies and Shocks

This course is derived from the PEP research program "Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis" (MPIA). The objective is to train participants in constructing models of their national economy, and conducting simulations in order to forecast the impact of macroeconomic shocks/policies on the economy’s multiple agents, sectors and the various dimensions of poverty and welfare within the country.

CGE modeling techniques

PEP activities in terms of training and innovations in the field of economic modelling stand out among the Network’s most widely acknowledged contributions to the advancement of policy analysis in development economics.

PEP resource persons are internationally known for developing a series of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) reference models that allow more country-specific and extensive applications, especially in the context of developing country economies.

 

Basic and advanced modules of PEP modelling schools are offered regularly in both French and English (see below), and organized in collaboration with Southern institutions. Scientific expertise and training material is provided by PEP resource persons. The program aims to enhance local capacity in understanding the impacts of macroeconomic policy and shocks through training on the theoretical foundations and empirical implementation of their analysis. Ultimately, the schools aims to contribute to the design of effective national growth and poverty reduction strategies.

Expected outcomes

Participants learn how to build and use CGE models, from simple to more complex representations of national economies, to conduct simulations of economic and policy shocks and to interpret the results, i.e. the forecasted impacts and outcomes on the economy’s agents and sectors. Training include acquiring basic or advanced command of techniques and tools that are essential to CGE analysis, such as Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) and GAMS software.

Specific objectives

Basic program:

  • Understand how to use CGE models to analyze economic policies in both developed and developing economies
  • Understand the data requirements and statistical needs to implementing these models;
  • Have a basic command of the GAMS software;
  • Understand the economic theory and  logic underlying CGE models;
  • Be able to build, run and adapt a model  to represent country characteristics
  • Be able to interpret and explain results generated by a CGE model

While the more advanced programs are usually customized to fit the participants' more specific needs in terms of research. See for example a 2012 edition of "Advanced training in CGE and GAMS" held in South Africa

For information on past and current editions of the PEP modelling schools, follow the links below: 

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